Assumption Autopsy: How to validate assumptions and identify avoidable product risks

What is an Assumption Autopsy? I had the same question a few months back when I first heard it while we were working on The Product LaunchPad. Pretty much everyone on the team seemed to have a good understanding of it and I felt weird being the only one, so instead of asking I decided to search it out for myself and share what I’ve come to understand as well as how you can utilise it.

If you are a product manager or innovator working on transforming ideas into products that solve real-world challenges, then one of the major keys you need for success is to ensure that the solutions you are developing actually address the real needs of users. 

This often requires validating assumptions that drive product decisions, and one powerful way to do this is through assumption autopsy exercise. This involves listing out as many assumptions as possible and bringing together stakeholders who know the problem space well and users who face the problem on a daily basis.

And so in this article, we will be exploring the value of carrying out assumption autopsies when developing products aimed at solving identified problems for users.

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But first, what are assumptions?

Assumptions are beliefs or ideas you have of something (this could be an idea, a problem, or a solution) without necessarily having any concrete proof of it being true in reality. In other words, they are facts or characteristics that must be true in the real world for your business, offering, or product to be successful.

Assumptions are really helpful because they help you capture insights based on what you currently know and are likely to act upon. For every business or product, there are a set of ‘critical‘ assumptions that could make or break its existence; especially if the critical ones turn out to be false.

But as helpful as assumptions are, you are not meant to act upon them blindly. It is crucial that you test these assumptions to prove them true or false so that you can avoid taking unnecessary risks.

A basic example of assumptions;

Let’s say you live in a large neighbourhood where there are long pedestrian walking routes, with no access to the public transport system within it. You notice that people who do not own vehicles always have to walk to get to spots such as gyms, shops and other locations around the neighbourhood. In addition, those leaving the neighbourhood have to walk long distances before they can find vehicles for public transportation. 

So you come up with an idea to provide some mode of transportation that is affordable and convenient – you have a plan to purchase bicycles and place them in the neighbourhood for rental.

Based on your observation, you start to assume that; 

• – “People who live in my community are in need of a more convenient way to commute.” 
• – “If an alternative mode of transportation is available such as bicycles they will be willing to pay a rental fee to access it” 
• – “At least 80% of the population in the neighbourhood can ride a bicycle.”

Notice how things begin to crystallize even with these few assumptions listed out? That’s only the start of an exciting validation exercise.

If you’re unfamiliar with assumptions or assumption validations, and would like to learn more about it, then read on to get additional insights.

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Why Do Assumption Autopsies Matter?

If assumptions are the beliefs we hold about our users, their needs, and the problem we are trying to solve, and we are basing it just on personal, incomplete or even outdated information, then it can lead to misguided decisions that result in wasted resources. And so, it’s important to carry out assumption autopsies, so we can unearth these hidden assumptions and validate them with real feedback, data and insights from authentic sources which are stakeholders and users themselves.

So How Do You Conduct an Assumption Autopsy?

First,

List Out Your Assumptions:

Start by listing out all the assumptions you have made about the problem, the users, and the proposed solution.

This could include assumptions about user needs, preferences, behaviours, and pain points.

Challenge These Assumptions

By encouraging the stakeholders and users to share their perspectives on each assumption by providing evidence or real-world examples. This will help you uncover biases and blind spots.

Which brings us to the next step.

Gather Stakeholders:

Bring key stakeholders who have a deep understanding of the problem space together. People such as domain experts, customer support and data analysts would have insights you can benefit from in your process. Sometimes, we could be working on a project with stakeholders who entrust us with the execution/delivery of the project.

In order to be able to inform the project stakeholders well about the project assumptions, we must have a complete list of them so that we don’t have any problems or contradictions to define and explain each one.

For example, the general classification of project assumptions in construction projects are:

• – Budget
• – Finances
• – Scope
• – Resources
• – Delivery
• – Schedule project
• – Methodology
• – Technology
• – Architecture and Design
• – Work referral methods

If you’re building a product for a market and need to validate your assumptions, then in addition to this, you also need to involve users.

Involve Users:

Invite users who are directly impacted by the problem to share their experiences and perspectives. You can do this through interviews, surveys, user testing sessions or by analyzing user behaviour data to see if your assumptions hold true.

Iterate and Pivot:

Then you Iterate and Pivot based on the insights you’ve gained from these assumption autopsy meetings with stakeholders and users.

You can iterate on the product concept or pivot the strategy if need be. This process of continuous learning and validation is key to building successful products that users want to use.

And so by implementing this process of an assumption autopsy and leveraging these validation methods with stakeholders and users, you can be sure that your decisions are rooted in real user needs and insights, which keep you on the path to developing a successful product.

The key is to stay open-minded and embrace the learning process, knowing it will yield great rewards for your efforts, as well as be willing to course-correct based on validated data.

As soon as you implement these steps in your project, let us know how well this worked for you by sharing your feedback with us here.